One Sentence Begets Much Optimism

How can one line in a small story about a relatively minor Caps' signing (that of Dave Steckel to a one-year deal) be cause for so much optimism and anticipation for next season? When the line reads "[Steckel] figures to enter the season as the fourth line pivot behind Nicklas Backstrom, Sergei Fedorov, and Michael Nylander." How many years during the 90s did we fans pine for such depth and wealth of talent at center (don't forget +28 Viktor Kozlov ready to step in the middle if needed)? Remember watching failed bids for the likes of Pierre Turgeon, Jeremy Roenick, etc? Or how about forcing wings to play center, or signing a moody superstar's favorite center to placate him in the hopes of squeezing some production out of his $7 million/year contract?

Those years are gone. Ancient history. The depth and abilities we so longed for are there: the perfect combination of playmaking and defensive acumen. The one line said it all.

Looking For the Sweep (Ovie and Otherwise)

Just a little more than an hour from Alex Ovechkin’s completely in-the-bag grab of trophies Hart and Pearson. News-leaking t-shirts aside, there wasn’t all that much suspense to begin with. The one true-but-still-minor threat came from Evgeni “Sid’s shadow” Malkin, but looking past the blinding He Saved Hockey When Sid Was Hurt hype, Ovechkin really stood alone with his 65 goals, 112 points, double-digit game-winners, etc. And no slight to Jarome Iginla, very much Ovie-like in his own right and very un-Crosby-like in his complete aversion to diving (full disclosure: I signed him as a UFA in NHL 08; best move by a fake GM ever).

So there’s part one of the slight fulfilling of our somewhat-maligned-yet-eerily fruitioning (and somehow popular Google-search destination) pre-season awards predictions. Bruce II should be the other lock for a trophy. If not, what's the point of the Jack Adams? The only even miniscule question mark is Nick Backstrom and the Calder. He may unfairly suffer from this “stats padded by playing with Ovechkin” nonsense, and it would be a shame to see him locked out because of that (or by that, um, incident against the Penguins). Regardless, we came to know the studdy playmaker Backstrom is, the clutch OT goal-scorer he can be, and the hands-down winner of the Calder Trophy For Best Team-Promoting TV Commercial By a Rookie. Steeeel see it.

The Nightmare is Over

Mrs. DCO probably put it best when, shortly after Marian Hossa’s wouldn’t-have-counted-anyway last-second shot trickled harmlessly if-tantalizlingly through the crease, she said, “Someone had to lose, and I’m glad it was the Penguins.” With this godsend of a loss, we are now free from the mental anguish that has plagued us all since Pittsburgh threw their final regular season game against the Flyers so they could match up against Ottawa in the first round. Yes, the Senators, who were swept in the regular season by the Capitals long before it was fashionable, and common, to sweep the Senators. The Peguins’ shell-curling-up-in on that last day denied the Caps a chance to again take down Ottawa in four, and left the Chosen One and his lackeys an open door into the second round and beyond.

We watched in horror as we realized we had to first choose between the Penguins and Rangers. After but a few moments, it was clear we had to, extremely grudgingly, root for New York (I still choke on my keystrokes writing that). Once that trial was passed, it was on to perhaps the greatest conundrum in Washington sports outside a Cowboys-Eagles NFC Championship: Flyers vs. Penguins for the opportunity to play for the Cup. Was there more a sinking feeling in recent hockey history as knowing that one of these reviled franchises, one with the aforementioned Anointed One and one with Danny Briere, would be within but four victories of defiling that fine silver chalice? It was enough to (almost) make an optimist’s heart wilt.

But we got through it and, as always, were able to find something positive in the experience. A celebration of a quarter century of Philly sports dominance was worth seeing the Penguins become Eastern Conference champions – provided they lost the next round. And lose they did, despite Sidney Crosby’s “performance for the ages” in Game 3 and Evgeni Malkin’s imminent breakout heralding, accidental game-winning-goal-assisting Game 5. Rescuing us from more Crosby coddling was Conn Smythe winner Henrik Zetterberg, who tied lil’ Sid for the playoff points lead (often scoring goals) and denied him yet another pair of his birthrights: leading the playoffs in points, and possibly the Conn Smythe itself.


The last week has been a hectic week for DCO, with both members immersed in working obligations in the Central timezone, hence the paucity of posting. All is well now, however, and we are ready to bring you another summer of Nats’ successes (on the field and in the draft room), Capitals’ trophy-collecting and roster-strengthening, Redskins’ gearing-up for a season of continuity, Wizards’ doing the same, and United’s staging of another comeback from a less-than-ideal start. That we get to enjoy such a summer without glowing stories of Crosby’s heroic secondary-assist dishing, his superior “vision” for being able to skate into the offensive zone and drop the puck to a defenseman (a move nobody else has ever pulled off, ever), his unprecedented two-goal game in the Finals, and Malkin’s inspiring 3-point Cup Finals performance makes it all the sweeter.

At last, the only hockey news in front of us is good news. Alex Ovechkin will collect a couple of trophies on June 12. Bruce should collect another, and Nick Backstrom is a prime deserving candidate for yet another. Then we wait on imminent signings of next season’s third-line center Sergei Fedorov, and next season’s starting goalie, Cristobal Huet. Still more goodness follows, with a key free agent signing here and there, followed by a training camp featuring a healthy Michael Nylander, Chris Clark, and Brian Pothier, then on to a division-title-defending season culminating in a Cup run, perhaps with a sweep of the Penguins thrown in. It’s (finally) going to be a good summer.

Revisiting Pre-Season Predictions

In this basking-in-it time between the Capitals utterly improbable run to the post-season and their equally improbable run through the post-season, let’s look back to the predictions we made back in June regarding the 2007-2008 NHL awards. This tiny post has been one of our most accessed, with hundreds of unsuspecting Google and Yahoo! searchers seeking information on award prognostication finding their way to our DC-centric forecasts. We will now examine these predictions, assigning each a grade based on hindsight benefited by ten months and an NHL season, plus a statistical probability that our optimism will be rewarded.

Calder
Prediction: Nicklas Backstrom
Grade: A
We in Washington of course knew of the potential dynamo we had quietly finding his way into the Caps lineup, while much of the rest of the league drooled over names like Kane and Toews in Chicago. While one of those two may yet take the Calder (benefiting somewhat from the absurdly lacking-in-logic argument that Backstrom’s numbers are inflated because he happened to play with Alex Ovechkin), but this was a solid pick.
Probability: 75%

Selke
Prediction: Boyd Gordon
Grade: C
The pick was based on solid logic in June, even though it may look a little flawed now in April. Gordon definitely looked to be on the rise (and still will be) as a top-notch defensive forward with that always-desired third-line offensive upside. He did get a little derailed by injury early on, which is why we cannot completely discount him as a potential Selke nominee in the future.
Probability: 0% Another time.

Norris
Prediction: Soon-to-be-acquired (by trade or free agency) elite defenseman
Grade: C
Partial credit. What, you say? How can we justify this seemingly completely wrong prediction with a generous middle-of-the-road grade like C? Well, the partial credit comes from a couple of aspects. Around the middle of the season, Mike Green started getting some attention for his swift skating, penchant for OT game-winners, and speed that allowed him to jump up into plays while still granting him time to hustle back down the ice and be defensively sound. His name and “Norris” were uttered once or twice, and the general sentiment was (and remains) that he will blossom into an elite defenseman. So he could be construed to be our unnamed-in-June man. The only thing preventing this from being a higher grade is that tricky phrase “soon-to-be” in front of “acquired”. While Green was acquired with a draft pick obtained a trade, it happened back in 2004.
Probability: 11% Nick Lidstrom, anyone?

Vezina
Prediction: Olaf Kolzig/Brent Johnson
Grade: B-
Again, partial credit. Right team, wrong player(s). In a way, we could claim to have been a little mixed up in our predictions for Norris and Vezina, for an elite player was acquired via trade, but it wasn’t a defenseman, it was elite goaltender Cristobal Huet. Did his playoff-cinching nine-game winning streak, 11-2 record, 1.63 GAA and .936 save percentage in 13 games with the Capitals come too late for consideration for the Vezina? NO!
Probability: 17%. Might grab some consideration, a la Manny Acta and his should-have-had-it Manager of the Year award.

Lady Bing
Prediction: Donald Brashear
Grade: Incomplete
Ha, ha! See the irony. You see (snicker), Donald Brashear does not play a gentlemanly form of hockey (chortle). Therefore (suppressed giggle), he would never garner consideration for the Lady Bing. Oh the hilarious irony.
Probability: < 0%

Jack Adams
Prediction: Glen Hanlon
Grade: B
Again, right team, wrong man. Can there really be consideration for anyone other than Bruce Boudreau? His only potential derailment comes from optimism-haters and their nit-pickery about not coaching an entire season. That of course can be easily remedied when Boudreau leads the Caps to the Presidents Trophy next season, but for now it’s really his only obstacle.
Probability: 95% It’s gotta be Bruce.

Hart
Prediction: Alex Ovechkin
Grade: A+
Not exactly a profound prediction, though doubtless many a Canadian media member and resident of Pittsburgh and West Virginia took extreme umbrage at any pre-season notion that their anointed one would not take home a second straight MVP. They likely still hope for a Pittsburgh Hart in the form of Evgeni Malkin, since that in a way would pay proper deference to their tragically injured diety.
Probability: 99% I’ve never been one to encourage or condone rioting, but if Ovechkin does not win the Hart, I encourage and condone rioting.

Conn Smythe
Prediction: Brooks Laich
Grade: B+
We invoked the memory of Druce on the Loose in penning this somewhat obscure up-and-comer in for the playoff MVP. Coming off a career regular season, it might not be that absurd a premise. We’ll start to see come Friday.
Probability: 21%

The Comeback Win of a Comeback Season

Could last night’s stirring third-period storm-back against Atlanta have been more representative the Caps’ season? Coming back to win a game when trailing after two periods (by two goals no less), after compiling a record of 0-45-5 in their last 50 previous such situations? Could this be, on a smaller scale, equivalent to coming back from a record of 6-14 (last in the Eastern Conference) in November to make the playoffs in April? Yes.

Losing to the Thrashers would not only have been a horrid blow to post-season hopes, it would have been completely, maddeningly frustrating, seeing as how Atlanta has been utterly useless of late in helping the Caps gain ground in the playoff hunt. Their apparent punting of their season a few weeks ago at the trading deadline was almost as much of a blow to the Caps’ chances as a loss last night in Atlanta could have been. With the teams the Caps are chasing piling up wins and points at the Thrashers’ expense, it was important for Washington to do so as well.

Perhaps Nicklas Backstrom is finally heeding the call to shoot more when presented with an open lane to the net, rather than making the final, perfect pass for the exceedingly beautiful goal (which he is capable of making). His two-goals-in-32-seconds were a harbinger of seasons of greater goal-scoring prowess to accompany his already well-established assist accumulating acumen. Call his saving of this game and season yet another exhibit for his Calder trophy case. Once that trophy is in hand, perhaps he will no longer be confused with similarly named players.

Then of course there’s Ovie and his 60 goals, a feat last accomplished in the NHL when he was ten years old. How appropriate that the March 24 issue of Sports Illustrated featured an article on this now-completed quest. More on that, and a debunking of some cruel Ovie myths, in another post.

Blocking the Shot, Stemming the Tide, Stopping the Bleeding

Perhaps in March and April, when the Caps are jockeying for playoff position, we will look back to Dave Steckel’s stick-less blocking of a shot while killing of a 5-on-3 power play as the turning point of the season. It could be the sort of moment that turned around the entire momentum of the season and not just this utterly perfect upset game in Ottawa. It topped even their home-opening shutout win of Carolina as far as complete efforts go, and definitely tops that win as far as potential season-long implications. It all goes back to that play. It was shades of six years ago and a different sport, when Lavar Arrington returned an interception for a touchdown to turn around the season of a Redskins team that at that point was 0-5 and disintegrating (interestingly enough, also with many calls to can the coach). Of course, that Skins team finished at .500 and out of the playoffs and the coach was canned, so perhaps an imperfect comparison, but the similar premise remains.

It was that “full 60 minutes” we’ve heard so much about, and it was never more evident than during the third period, when instead of sitting back and simply trying to survive an aggressive and desperate Ottawa attack, the Caps took shots of their own, eventually being rewarded with a vintage Ovechkin goal and a much-more-comfortable three-goal lead.

We’re sometimes asked what possible positives we can glean from seemingly completely negative situations (there have been some tough ones. In this situation, though, we need to ask: what possible negatives can be taken from tonight? A brief lapse late in the second period to give up the lone Ottawa goal? Nothing overwhelmingly terrible there, really. A bad penalty or two? Maybe, but that can even lead to the great positive of 5-for-5 penalty killing against that 50-goals-in-14-games Ottawa attack. The 2-on-1 break by the Senators eight seconds into the game? Again, it only reminds us that Olie made the save and went on to make many more in probably his best game of the season. So really, what awfulness can be spun from tonight, when the Senators were handed their second (and worst) loss of the season?

More good stuff:
-The much-needed re-emergence of Viktor Kozlov. Three points and the kind of bull-your-way-to-the-net goal that we need to see a lot more of
-Niklas Backstrom: temporarily tired of dishing assists, he finally gets the first of no-doubt many NHL goals
-The afforementioned Dave Steckel. Sure he finished -1 for the night with no points, but that blocked shot sans stick on the 5-on-3 was worth more than anything on the stats sheet could show
-Power Play. 1-for-4 and consistent pressure. Just like their now-second-best game of the season vs. Carolina at home

So yeah, that was enjoyable to watch. A truly major early-season upset. On Frozen Blog puts it in proper historical context.

Time now to build on this and continue the climb back to Eastern Conference relevancy. Next up: Tampa Bay, who are only two points ahead of the Caps. I'll be watching while enjoying my Family 4-Pack. The Lighting, incidentally, are 1-7 on the road so far (finally winning tonight at Carolina).

Stycke av Pussel

That's Swedish (roughly, according to some online dictionaries) for "piece of the puzzle", and that is precisely what the Washington Capitals secured yesterday. Center Nicklas Backstrom, big-time scorer and phenom from the Swedish League, will join the Caps next year in the NHL. Marvelous. It was widely bemoaned that Backstrom was not in Washington this past year, but in retrospect that is a good thing. Having Backstrom last year would not have made the Caps that much better and would only have counted a year towards his free agent elligibility. Now, DCO believes, a slightly older and more seasoned Backstrom is a step towards propelling the Caps to greatness.

Time to look again to the offseason, and the acquisition of a quality defenseman and at least one of the following: a top-line center, another quality defenseman, a scoring wing. Regarding the top-line center, DCO re-emphasizes its insistence that this player NOT be Daniel Briere (aka, King of the Groin-Spearing Tools, soon-to-be-aka King of the Eliminated From the Playoffs Before Their Hockey-Media-Mandated Stanley Cup Championship Tools). Several commentators on Capitals Insider have similarly expressed their distaste for "Mr" Briere's cowardly spear-centric play, and we encourage all, especially Caps' management, to read. Please, Ted, George, et al, by all means make a play for Chris Drury or Scott Gomez, but not this idiot.

But back to the positive. Having Backstrom here next season will be huge. Add a few more players to a fast-maturing set of youngsters, and big things will happen. Keep an eye on guys like Boyd Gordon (who could be primed for a breakout year as a shut-down checking center) and Matt Pettinger (25-goal scorer if he stays healthy). They are former first round picks who may finally be showing some real promise.

What's that you say, it's too early for predictions for next season? Nonsense. How's this: Caps will make the playoffs as no lower than the 6th seed. We're as sure of that as we are that the Nats will not lose 100 games. Put it in the book.