More Calming Perspective

Some of the early free agent period (and it is still early in the free agent period) angst rising amongst Caps fans with signings of Brooks Laich, Sergei Fedorov, Shaonne Morrision, that ever-so-easy-to-find-and-sign elite defenseman, etc. not yet in the books, it’s time to pause for a moment for some (final) thoughts on the Cristobal Huet non-signing, and to put some perspective in place.

Huet is now making more money with his non-Vezina-winning resume than Martin Brodeur is with his multiple-Vezina-winning ways, including one the year just past, in which Huet apparently earned his big contract for his post-trade heroics. That being said, he is, as we know, still not the highest-paid goalie on the Blackhawks. That distinction goes to $6.75 million lottery winner Nikolai Khabibulin.

This headlong recklessness is clearly not the operating style of the Caps and GMGM, and we should be grateful. Plus, the more we hear about how the Huet negotiations went down, the better it seems the Caps are for walking away. Getting desperate and panicky to offer up market-shifting sums to a player based on a few months’ of work (no matter how blissfully memorable those months were) would not serve us fans well in the future. Chicago may well learn that when their salary-throwing puts them in Penguins-like crunches a year or two from now. If Brian Burke is peeved at Kevin Lowe for driving up salaries last year, he surely must be saving some ire for Blackhawks’ GM Dale Tallon now.

Speaking of the Penguins, how about that Marian Hossa? Swell guy, that one. He makes a case for being the first non-DC sports figure inducted into the DCO Hall of Fame. But we’ll show some non-Tallon-like restraint and simply salute him for his choice of Detroit over Pittsburgh. That while we wait for the chorus of praise for Evgeni Malkin, he who unselfishly accepted $8.7 million a season to join the martyr Crosby in putting team above contract. They, of course, being the superior team players for not grabbing for Alex Ovechkin’s selfish $9.5 million (that cad; when he’s not being “selfish” getting a big contract he’s being “selfish” scoring too many goals and not compiling enough secondary assists, right?). Why with all that extra cap space the Pens might just be able to replace Hossa with Ben Clymer!

But back to perspective. With reports of Laich not being close to signing, let’s not assume the Caps are being cheap and not trying to get the deal done. It’s more likely that, as with the Huet dealings, they want to keep this guy. DCO loves Brooks Laich and wants his net-crashing acumen around for a long time. DCO also loves Nick Backstrom, Alexander Semin, and other Caps or future Caps who may need to be signed in coming years. Thus, panicky money should not be thrown at Brooks in a desperate attempt to keep him here, much as we would be pained to see him go. But we don’t expect it to come to that, and remain optimistic it will get worked out, unless Chicago or Edmonton throws a 5-year/$25 million contract at him.

Some admiration this free agency period should also to go Mats Sundin. While certainly no one would begrudge him from jumping at 2 years and $20 million from Vancouver, it’s heartening to see that gaudy figures alone do not drive this scorer of 78 points last season (34 fewer than previously mentioned “money-grabber” Ovie). Such a contract precedent might push similarly aged Fedorov out of the Caps’ reach. We still hope to see him around as well, dishing to Laich in front of the net and centering a third line of quality we have not seen since the Kono-Halpern-Dahlen days. Mrs. DCO pines to see Fedorov remain as well, as she will miss his "cute striped hat” if he’s not here.

Calm perspective. It’s still early and these things will work out.

Place Your Bets

On this very tense day of hand-wringing before unrestricted free agency begins, let's try to predict which of these eventualities will be announced by the Capitals first:

A. Signing of Mike Green to a multi-year deal, financially satisfying to both parties
B. Signing of Cristobal Huet to a three-year deal
C. Signing of Sergei Fedorov to a one-year deal with club option for second year
D. Signing of Brooks Laich to a multi-year deal, incentive-laden for his imminent 30-goal season

The above, coupled with any sort of announcement out of Pittsburgh concerning any sort of dismantling of that club (in addition to the Malone and Roberts thing, we mean), will make for a happy midsummer's day.

Revisiting Pre-Season Predictions

In this basking-in-it time between the Capitals utterly improbable run to the post-season and their equally improbable run through the post-season, let’s look back to the predictions we made back in June regarding the 2007-2008 NHL awards. This tiny post has been one of our most accessed, with hundreds of unsuspecting Google and Yahoo! searchers seeking information on award prognostication finding their way to our DC-centric forecasts. We will now examine these predictions, assigning each a grade based on hindsight benefited by ten months and an NHL season, plus a statistical probability that our optimism will be rewarded.

Calder
Prediction: Nicklas Backstrom
Grade: A
We in Washington of course knew of the potential dynamo we had quietly finding his way into the Caps lineup, while much of the rest of the league drooled over names like Kane and Toews in Chicago. While one of those two may yet take the Calder (benefiting somewhat from the absurdly lacking-in-logic argument that Backstrom’s numbers are inflated because he happened to play with Alex Ovechkin), but this was a solid pick.
Probability: 75%

Selke
Prediction: Boyd Gordon
Grade: C
The pick was based on solid logic in June, even though it may look a little flawed now in April. Gordon definitely looked to be on the rise (and still will be) as a top-notch defensive forward with that always-desired third-line offensive upside. He did get a little derailed by injury early on, which is why we cannot completely discount him as a potential Selke nominee in the future.
Probability: 0% Another time.

Norris
Prediction: Soon-to-be-acquired (by trade or free agency) elite defenseman
Grade: C
Partial credit. What, you say? How can we justify this seemingly completely wrong prediction with a generous middle-of-the-road grade like C? Well, the partial credit comes from a couple of aspects. Around the middle of the season, Mike Green started getting some attention for his swift skating, penchant for OT game-winners, and speed that allowed him to jump up into plays while still granting him time to hustle back down the ice and be defensively sound. His name and “Norris” were uttered once or twice, and the general sentiment was (and remains) that he will blossom into an elite defenseman. So he could be construed to be our unnamed-in-June man. The only thing preventing this from being a higher grade is that tricky phrase “soon-to-be” in front of “acquired”. While Green was acquired with a draft pick obtained a trade, it happened back in 2004.
Probability: 11% Nick Lidstrom, anyone?

Vezina
Prediction: Olaf Kolzig/Brent Johnson
Grade: B-
Again, partial credit. Right team, wrong player(s). In a way, we could claim to have been a little mixed up in our predictions for Norris and Vezina, for an elite player was acquired via trade, but it wasn’t a defenseman, it was elite goaltender Cristobal Huet. Did his playoff-cinching nine-game winning streak, 11-2 record, 1.63 GAA and .936 save percentage in 13 games with the Capitals come too late for consideration for the Vezina? NO!
Probability: 17%. Might grab some consideration, a la Manny Acta and his should-have-had-it Manager of the Year award.

Lady Bing
Prediction: Donald Brashear
Grade: Incomplete
Ha, ha! See the irony. You see (snicker), Donald Brashear does not play a gentlemanly form of hockey (chortle). Therefore (suppressed giggle), he would never garner consideration for the Lady Bing. Oh the hilarious irony.
Probability: < 0%

Jack Adams
Prediction: Glen Hanlon
Grade: B
Again, right team, wrong man. Can there really be consideration for anyone other than Bruce Boudreau? His only potential derailment comes from optimism-haters and their nit-pickery about not coaching an entire season. That of course can be easily remedied when Boudreau leads the Caps to the Presidents Trophy next season, but for now it’s really his only obstacle.
Probability: 95% It’s gotta be Bruce.

Hart
Prediction: Alex Ovechkin
Grade: A+
Not exactly a profound prediction, though doubtless many a Canadian media member and resident of Pittsburgh and West Virginia took extreme umbrage at any pre-season notion that their anointed one would not take home a second straight MVP. They likely still hope for a Pittsburgh Hart in the form of Evgeni Malkin, since that in a way would pay proper deference to their tragically injured diety.
Probability: 99% I’ve never been one to encourage or condone rioting, but if Ovechkin does not win the Hart, I encourage and condone rioting.

Conn Smythe
Prediction: Brooks Laich
Grade: B+
We invoked the memory of Druce on the Loose in penning this somewhat obscure up-and-comer in for the playoff MVP. Coming off a career regular season, it might not be that absurd a premise. We’ll start to see come Friday.
Probability: 21%

More Hex-Busting, More Reason To Think Playoffs

We already know hot teams are no match for the Capitals. Well, now we know that completely non-hot teams, like the Thrashers, losers of 10 of 12, are fodder as well. Further, with last night’s 4-1 win over Atlanta, we see another curse apparently broken. Recently, the Caps have solved Boston goalie Tim Thomas and the entire city of Buffalo, and now they can check Kari Lehtonen off their list of tormentors, he being the tormenting type that annoyingly likes to stop almost 40 shots, turning away a dozen or more quality scoring chances in the process (there’s still that irritating Pittsburgh hex to work on, but that could be taken care of by, say, a playoff victory this spring).

The moment the Lehtonen hex was lifted was easy to spot. It happened mere microseconds after Alex Ovechkin’s wrist shot brutally tore through his five-hole. The scored-upon-four-times Atlanta goalie smashed his fists on his pads in obvious frustration, perhaps rage. The game was already quite over by that point, given the constant Washington domination that preceded it, but that goal sealed the game as securely as Atlanta’s non-playoff fate is sealed.

Even when Slava Kozlov’s tricky little shot snuck past Kolzig to put Atlanta up 1-0, ‘tism levels in the arena noticeably did not take a hit. It clearly had something to do with the magnificent tilt in the ice last night towards the Atlanta defensive zone. Maybe it also had something to do with the massive deficit the Thrashers were accumulating in shots. Maybe the 18,000+ in attendance felt that, this time, all those chances against the mighty Kari were going to lead to something.

Of course, they were right, and optimism was rewarded just a few minutes later when Brooks Laich, clearly becoming a fan favorite if the pre-game introductioncheers are any indication calmly roofed his 18th goal.

Laich was at it again a couple of minutes into the second period, getting Verizon Center vibrating (and my ears truly hurting for the first time at a Caps game all season) by grittily poking the puck into the net as it was about to be knocked askew. At that point in the game, Brooks had as many goals as Atlanta had shots (their last shot coming on their goal 11:41 into the first period). He continues to form into the player I had always hoped Matt Pettinger would become: that grindy, gritty player who could park in front of the net, kill penalties, and score 30 goals a season while doing it. Hmm, sounds like a soon-to-be-returning injured captain, doesn’t it. Two guys like that on a team offer all sorts of line balancing combinations. Put Laich in line just behind Mike Green as the next player in need of a 13-year contract extension.

The highlight of the second period, though, had to be the Trade Deadline Payoff Play, brought to you by George McPhee. Fedorov assists Cooke on a shorthanded breakaway goal. Fedorov almost did it again about a minute later, brilliantly setting up Matt Bradley for a layup on a 2-on-1 break. Just barely not enough air for Brads, though. Oh well. Point made. The only thing that could have made the sequence more perfect (vindicating?) would have been an electrifying save by Cristobal Huet on the penalty kill. As it was, Kolzig had it well in hand anyway. Thus the period ended with the Caps up 3-1, holding the Thrashers to all of six shots, and making my neck sore from having my head turned towards the Atlanta goal for almost all of the period’s 20 minutes.

In the third, Fedorov kept it up with all that faceoff winnin’ and started a power play that ended with the aforementioned lethal Ovie wristshot goal. Laich also reminded us what a stout defensive player he is with a blocked shot on a penalty kill that boomed and resonated throughout the areana. Later he assuaged fears he might have been injured by the shot, declaring it only hit his shin pad. Still, it sounded dramatic enough to be injury-inducing.

Bruce II summed up the game nicely afterwards, calling the team “determined” and christening the Caps’ effort “as complete a game as I’ve seen.” Hard to argue with that. And with the Hurricanes suffering a hopefully confidence-and-season-crushing 7-1 defeat to Buffalo, the division lead suddenly doesn’t seem such an absurd goal again. Five points back, one game in hand, two games vs. Carolina. Pretty good. Regarding the fall-back plan of the #8 seed, they are three points behind the Flyers, who are soon to lose to the Bruins, who are in turn set to lose to the Capitals on Sunday. Thus the circle is complete and the Caps are closer to the postseason.

So you still can’t count the Capitals out of anything. As the soon-to-be-20-goal-scorer Laich said, “We were written off early in the season too”, and we know how that turned out, so it is way, way premature to write off their chances to catch the Hurricanes.